EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn made clear yesterday (5 November) that Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as Kosovo, are still a long way away from getting clear persprectives of EU accession. Presenting the European Commission's progress reports on candidate countries and potential new entrants to the European Parliament, Rehn made a clear distinction between Croatia and the remaining Western Balkan applicants.  Alluding to Winston Churchill, who once famously said "the Balkans produce more history than they can consume," Rehn said there was "no end of history for the Western Balkans". 

"There is a difference. Croatia has made better progress," Rehn said, responding to criticism from various MEPs who considered that the Commission had left Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia behind.

Croatia is the only Western Balkan country to have been given a tentative date for the conclusion of its accession negotiations: the end of 2009.

But even Croatia has problems with its negotiations, with Slovenia blocking the opening of four chapters over a border delimitation dispute. Without naming Slovenia, Rehn expressed regret and said he would prefer bilateral issues to be solved in a bilateral framework.

The Western Balkans have moved closer to the EU over the past year, the Commission revealed, but progress has been uneven.

Enlargement 'fatigue'

In spite of the EU executive's insistence that its assessments are based on objective criteria, the countries in the region are increasingly aware that enlargement is no longer fashionable in the EU, especially in the context of the current financial crisis and uncertainty following the rejection of the Lisbon Treaty by Ireland.

European Parliament President Hans-Gert Poettering said on Tuesday that "perhaps with the exception of Croatia," no enlargement was possible without the Lisbon Treaty. This statement contradicts strong views, expressed repeatedly by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, that no enlargement whatsoever was possible before the Lisbon Treaty comes into force (EurActiv 20/06/08). In fact, the Nice Treaty provides institutional arrangements for only 27 member states, but some countries believe that it may be possible to find a compromise to accommodate Croatia.

Positives and negatives

On the positive side, the EU executive expressed satisfaction that the situation in the region remained "generally calm" following the unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo. Moreover, it noted that a regionally-owned successor to the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe, the Regional Cooperation Council, had become operational in the meantime, with its headquarters in Sarajevo.

On the negative side, reform and reconciliation are "yet to become entrenched" and in many of the countries, state building and better governance are yet to be achieved. Compromise is still insufficient on inter-ethnic issues too, while corruption and organised crime remain an issue of major concern, the reports say.

The Commission considers that the international financial crisis has so far had a limited impact on the region, but expects foreign direct investment to decrease.

Macedonia appears to have made a step backwards, since violence over the early elections held last June (EurActiv 02/06/08) prompted the Commission to press the country to comply with the Copenhagen political criteria for EU accession.

But Rehn dismissed accusations from MEPs that the Commission had only "got tough" with Macedonia due to the name dispute with Greece. Macedonia recently failed to seize an opportunity for a compromise on the dispute based on the last of a series of proposals by UN mediator Matthew Nimetz. The country's hardline Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski also irked Greece with requests to promote the rights of the Macedonian minority in Greece (EurActiv 17/07/08).

Bosnia and Herzegovina on the other hand appears to have regressed, mainly due to ever-more heated nationalist rhetoric from former enemies prior to the Dayton peace agreements and wide disagreement on the scope of the future constitutional reform. This stalemate was recently highlighted in even sterner terms by the EU French Presidency (EurActiv 23/10/08).

Regarding Serbia, the Commission said progress was conditional on its "full cooperation" with the International Crime Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). The country is also encouraged to take a constructive approach towards Kosovo's participation in regional cooperation and the EU-led mission EULEX.

As for Albania, it is requested to ensure that its 2009 parliamentary elections are properly prepared and conducted. Montenegro is asked to intensify its judicial reform.

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